As involved as I am with performing and examining research related to residential and commercial real estate, I also know not to overdo it with some of the published information. Year vs. year trends is one area I think is overused, especially on the residential real estate side. I have said over the past 30 years that I have yet to meet a home buyer who purchased based on monthly or yearly local market trends. The individual or family situation, location, and price play a much bigger role than how many people bought homes months or years ago.
The article below compares residential inventory and home sales for February over the past eight years in an attempt to establish a trend. I’m not seeing the importance of considering this data.
Here are some of my reasons. The year 2020 had the distinction of being the year of the pandemic, which killed or changed thousands of deals. As things cleared up in 2021 and consumers adjusted to changes like working from home, what took place in 2020 had a strong influence on 2021. In 2024, property owners in parts of Florida and North Carolina suffered significant damage from two major hurricanes. Over the next few months we will see how Southern California real estate is impacted (well beyond just the month of February) from the major wildfires of early 2025.
At the same time, mortgage rates have varied from low to higher than recent years, which has shown an impact on real estate transactions. Playing the waiting game often means that “deals” available while rates are high won’t still be there if and when rates drop.
What it all means is that many conditions may change significantly by February 2026, and the reasons to buy, hold, or sell real estate could have nothing to do with current and recent trends.
How you interpret research, statistics, and trends can play an important role in decisions and transactions you and your team are considering or implementing. Although having research in your favor is extremely beneficial, it needs to be the right research.
https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-inventory-state-update-march-2025
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