Keeping The Statistics Straight

Another bothersome day in the struggle to gauge the real estate market. This morning's real estate "headlines" contained 2 separate stories. One about "home sales up" and another about "mortgage applications down". And both covering some of the same time period.

There are a couple of problems here. Home sales being "up" is only if compared to one year ago. Mortgage applications being "down" means that fewer people are applying for financing. That is not a reflection of how many (or how few) were turned down for a mortgage. The statistic is based on the number of applications and not the results. Hence, some will be turned down and the number of closings will be even lower.

This constant comparison of real estate sales statistics compared with one year ago or five years ago is not doing anyone any good. Well, except for those few who get paid to research these comparisons, since it keeps them employed. I have yet to learn of anyone who has attempted to purchase a home or a property based on what the market was like a year ago.

Now it appears that mortgage rates are headed back up, even though these are still rates much lower than they were a couple of years ago. Some people will panic over this, as if it spells doom. However, it reflects times of years ago when mortgage rates were at least 2% higher, yet more proerties were selling.

Meanwhile, I have been hearing the "It's becoming a sellers' market" crap coming from more and more realty agents within the past month. This is hard to swallow. If homeowners start to believe that, we'll have a flood of people looking to list their homes at much higher prices than they should be. And some agents who will go along with them in order to get the listing. If it doesn't sell, they (listing agent) don't lose out. Practically every home owner would sell if they got an outrageous enough offer.

What that does is harm the truly motivated sellers out there, already competing against the foreclosures and distressed properties dominating the market.

And what that does is keep things as stagnant as they have been for the past two years.

So help me, I had an agent in the Phoenix area tell me that the current inventory of available homes there "has dropped to 15,000" and how it signals a "sellers market" their. I have no idea how this could be, considering that if I were looking to buy in that area, there would likely be hundreds of homes to choose from in the price range I'd be looking at. Before the rest of the neighborhood decides to list their homes too. Frankly, there would need to be at least one less zero in that amount for me to even think of that being a "sellers market". I wonder how many different states one would have to research before finding 15,000 serious and qualified buyers for a home.

After all, if there were that many potential buyers in Phoenix, there wouldn't be time, or the need, for all of the meaningless statistics about home sales. Unfortunately, this isn't anybody's market at the moment.

Listing of the Day - Phoenix AZ

In an effort to improve the impact of the marketing of listings, I randomly choose current listings around the country in a variety of price ranges and comment on their effectiveness. No current clients of mine are used, nor do I know any sellers or buyers or have any additional information about the property.



8318 N. 5th Ave., Phoenix AZ 4 + 2 $300,000


http://www.homefinder.com/AZ/Phoenix/58745409d_8318_N_5th_Avenue

The first thing I saw was the photo and I made a guess that this listing was a 2 bedroom house. Turns out it is a 4-bedroom home. No way anyone could possibly tell from the angle of the photo. It would have shown much better taken from a corner which would have made the home seem large enough to hold 4 bedrooms, and not allowed for so much sky. It's Phoenix and we know it's going to be sunny.

Next, the description copy consists of about 80% of what I call "Realtor fluff". The first sentence and its "just driving up the pristine street you'll feel the appeal" demonstrates this. People are looking online to see whether or not they would be interested in driving by. It goes on as if you are entering the home. While it is not the fault of the agent that only one photo is used in these ads, the copy is written as if the potential buyer can see these things, which they cannot.

We are then told how the "formal living room is currently used as a formal dining room". How does finding out that one of the rooms is currently being used for a different purpose makes us want to check into this home?

Topping it all of are a pair of grammatical errors, which always reflect poorly on the listing agent. The "interior will make you feel like your in the pottery barn" not only should be "you're in....", but provokes the image of a barn instead of a well kept house. After a misspelled word, the end phrase is "just bring your clothers, don't miss out!". What are 'clothers'? And if we "just" need those, does that mean the home comes furnished? The run-on sentences with changing thoughts make it appear that the agent spent about 30 seconds looking up buzz words and even less time actually describing any unique selling points the home might have.

Nothing specific about the neighborhood, schools, or playgrounds anywhere on the page. For a 4 bedroom home??

OK copy for a $19.99 kitchen utensil, but miles off the mark for a $300,000 home when numerous other choices exist.

GRADE - D



Note: This commentary is uncompensated and for marketing purposes only and is no reflection on the featured property. Its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Dave Kohl nor First In Promotions shall be held responsible for any representations.

At this time, I have openings for more realty agent/office clients to critique current and brand new listings on an hourly basis. No current or past client listings are featured on this blog.Random listings are chosen around the country.

Your comments are most welcome!