Does Houston Have A Problem?

It's the next round of home sales and pricing releases around the country. The newest chance to see if the various realty associations have cut down on adding to the negative publicity about the current real estate market.

This one from the Houston Association of Realtors is attempting to show a positive spin:


http://www.har.com/mls/dispPressRelease_print.cfm?month=02&year=12


However, they have a few too many statistics included. Serious real estate market observers will see right through this, and that's not good.

This story builds up the so-called rise in home sales and relative steadyness of home prices for January and the months prior.

But it also shoots itself right back down. The real reason for this is right there in the story. As in the part about the increase in foreclosures, and how they now account for a much bigger percentage of home sales.

Why is the home sales market "up"? Because more and more former home owners have been foreclosed upon. Take away those statistics, and, well, it sheds a different light on the current marketplace.

This is where Houston has a problem. As well as other cities. The current market isn't really "up". If fewer people were losing their homes due to financial reasons beyond their control, it would not appear as if home sales are up.

It is really foreign investors, flippers, and a few speculators who are buying the homes out there, and doing so because in many cases they get a below market deal by acquiring a foreclosure.

That even more people are being foreclosed on in the Houston area, while many other parts of the country are "reporting" that the number of foreclosures has dipped, certainly should not be treated as the "positive" news the HAR is doing in this story.

Let's Appraise The Real Estate Market

Just within the past two weeks I have had some mortgage lenders from different parts of the country tell me that they are not able to close loans or refinances because of low appraisals, even after miles of paperwork had been executed. Yet, none of them could explain it in detail.

Certainly, I’m not here to attack real estate appraisers. They have a job to do, and I don’t know the first thing about how to do the hard work they do. However, it looks like they (appraisers) are just as caught up in this mess of a real estate market as the realty agents, hopeful sellers, and frustrated buyers.

My displeasure with how the realty associations and many agents continue to toss out negative statistics by comparing home sales figures is well documented over the past two years. Many of the banks contributed to the fallout on the mortgage side. And so it goes.

Sure, the appraisers have to go buy comps and other local market information. But wait a minute. A home sold via foreclosure is, or maybe I make that “should be”, considered a special circumstance and not a determining factor.

Suppose there is a development of 10 homes which sold more than two years ago for an average of $300,000. Then suppose two of those homes went into foreclosure and sold for an average of $200,000 within the past six months. I would prefer to think that since the only two homes in that development which sold were due to foreclosure, that it would NOT mean that the other eight homes are no longer valued at $300,000. Yet, that’s what’s happening.

Yet, it’s not only the appraisers taking this path, although it appears that this is what is causing purchases and refinances to be blocked. The realty agents and associations are going along with this trend. And many potential buyers and sellers, along with mortgage lenders and those related to a transaction, are being, well, screwed, because of it.

Here is my solution. Stop the madness. Why can’t the National Assn. of Realtors create a separate category for “Non-foreclosed homes”?

Using the ten home development as an example, comps would show that the eight “Non-foreclosed homes” are valued at an average of $300,000. The fact that two homes sold for a lot less due to special circumstances should not impact the value of the others.

Even if the “special circumstance” properties were factored in for “weighted” statistics, the impact would not be as draining for all concerned. If the $300,000 homes development was only reduced to a value of $280,000 due to “special circumstances”, it would most likely open up for more loans than appraisers coming in closer to $200,000 (based on current comps) and the realty professionals going along with that.

Let me put this another way. Suppose another national electronics retailer is about to go under and has a “Going Out of Business” sale including laptops. Let’s say they have an inventory of 5,000 laptops which retail for $800 each. And, due to court order, they sell them all for $450 as a final sale.

Would that mean that every comparable laptop for sale via other retailers still in business would now be priced at $450 permanently? After all, 5,000 people bought that brand and model for $450!!

A foreclosure is a court order. The property owner(s) could not or did not pay their money, and lost the property, and it was sold in this manner.

How are these situations different?

Instead of coming up with more negative statistics to show why people aren’t buying and selling homes in most cities, it would be nice to have the people who shape the industry working on some serious and immediate solutions to this crisis. Before it's too late and thousands more hard working people lose their homes, too.

Why Turning Foreclosures To Rentals Makes Sense

How about that? A politician with an idea that makes sense.

Actually, it's an idea I suggested in this very blog months ago, but maybe this publicity can make it come to life.


http://reed.senate.gov/press/release/reed-seeks-to-convert-foreclosed-homes-into-affordable-rental-units-provide-relief-to-victims-of-housing-crisis_--


If only this had been done a couple of years ago. The idea is to take foreclosed properties and turn them into rental units. This would have given many consumers who can't afford, can't get, or don't want a mortgage the ability to live in a house instead of a cramped apartment. Maybe they'd want to buy a home down the road. Even if they don't, they would be providing monthly revenue for the bank that owns the home, instead of sitting empty.

Multiply that scene by thousands, and that probably would have provided the banks with enough money so that our elected politicians wouldn't have been dumb enough to give these banks "bailout money". Only to have some of the banks hand that money to executives for bonus money and let the housing market continue to go down the tubes. And, of course, cause the government to cut back on everything else that bank money should have gone for.

Turning foreclosures into rental properties would also take thousands of listings off the market, and leave the buyers to go after properties offered by motivated sellers. At higher prices, of course. Taking foreclosures off the market would eliminate the majority of the vastly discounted property prices and therefore increase property values once again.

For a change, something a politician wants to do makes sense, and would actually benefit consumers. If only the others could understand that, this time.

How Banks Can Turn Around The Real Estate Market

It’s one of the first marketing and public relations tips a young person learns. Do your best to turn a negative into a positive. That thought should be in big, bold letters in every banker’s office in the country.

There I was reading more less than encouraging predictions for the real estate market last night. About how the banks continue to slow down the foreclosure process, claiming it is because of the government’s mortgage modification programs. Whether or not such is really the case or if certain bank executives are too busy counting their millions in bonus money I don’t know. But I do know that this is the single most damaging element to the current real estate crisis.

Considering how the government handed over all those millions to several large banks instead of paying back thousands of specific loans, it is up to these same banks to make the sales of foreclosures the number one priority.

If you wonder why I blame the banks as I do, there is a quote from a Chief Economist at Standard & Poor’s in Banker & Tradesman saying that “The time it takes to do a foreclosure has doubled” in a story published earlier this very week. This is a lot worse than banks with one teller and 10 people in line, and our usual service gripes.

Those few consumers or investors with enough funds and/or secure enough employment to risk purchasing a residence don’t care if the next great deal is a foreclosure or a desperate seller with other motivation. They want a good deal. But if the banks are stalling the sale of foreclosures, it really means that those homes which are not under foreclosure seem “higher priced” to a potential buyer and thus less appealing.

Suppose the banks knew they should thank their lucky stars the government handed over the millions to keep them in business and got serious about helping the economy. And they made it so that homes under foreclosure were EASY to purchase and quick to close. That would entice the investors and potential buyers to get in on the best deals first, while they last.

As foreclosure homes start to sell at reduced prices, it would raise the number and percentage of available homes sold. If several homes under foreclosure in the same community were to sell within a short period of time, that would create a demand for homes in that area. Now the lowest priced homes have been purchased, and that opens it up for the most motivated sellers to adjust their pricing to be the next sale.

However, as long as the banks play the stalling game and degrade the sales of foreclosure properties, home values across the country continue to plummet and millions of current mortgages stay under water. While the banks continue to raise service fees for consumers and businesses and sitting on their foreclosures, they could be taking the lead to stimulate this economy. Here’s hoping they get the message and get aggressive about finding buyers for their properties. Quickly. Or renting them out for a monthly income. Before it’s too late for them, and for us.

Foreclosures are a negative, but I see the way to turn them into a positive.